Pitch Radar

Juventus vs Napoli: what the numbers say

Serie A · Round 10 · 1 Nov 2026 · season 2026/27

The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.

Home win68%Juventus
Draw23%
Away win9%Napoli
Expected points, home2.28

What to expect

Juventus are favourites: 68% to win against 9%. Attack against defence: Juventus should create more, 1.58 expected goals a match against 1.10. Juventus are 2.1 points short of what their play deserved — more dangerous than the table suggests.

How they arrive

ClubPlacePPointsxPTSΔxG/matchxGA/match
Juventus751012.1−2.11.850.42
Napoli9578.8−1.81.781.32

Recent matches

Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.

All Serie A matches with xG → · Full Serie A xPTS table →