Pitch Radar

Como vs Venezia: what the numbers say

Serie A · Round 10 · 1 Nov 2026 · season 2026/27

The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.

Home win78%Como
Draw11%
Away win11%Venezia
Expected points, home2.46

What to expect

Como are favourites: 78% to win against 11%. Attack against defence: Como should create more, 2.39 expected goals a match against 1.70. Venezia are 5.5 points short of what their play deserved — more dangerous than the table suggests.

How they arrive

ClubPlacePPointsxPTSΔxG/matchxGA/match
Como85109.1+0.92.311.58
Venezia20505.5−5.51.812.47

Recent matches

Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.

All Serie A matches with xG → · Full Serie A xPTS table →