The score and the xG side by side. Where they disagree, someone rode their luck or wasted chances — and that is exactly how the season-long gap builds up.
| Match | Score | xG | Who deserved it |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0:1 | 1.02 : 2.17 | deserved | |
| 1:2 | 1.28 : 1.04 | even by chances | |
| 1:0 | 0.80 : 0.68 | even by chances | |
| 4:2 | 2.26 : 2.11 | even by chances | |
| 2:0 | 1.64 : 1.12 | deserved | |
| 2:1 | 1.73 : 1.20 | deserved | |
| 2:2 | 1.20 : 0.76 | even by chances | |
| 0:1 | 1.52 : 0.53 | got lucky |
Krasnodar — 2.26 xG. Opponent: CSKA Moscow. Result: a win.
Baltika Kaliningrad: 1.52 xG against the opponent's 0.53. Result: a defeat.