The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
Baltika Kaliningrad are favourites: 58% to win against 18%. Attack against defence: Baltika Kaliningrad should create more, 1.38 expected goals a match against 1.10. Baltika Kaliningrad are 5.2 points short of what their play deserved — more dangerous than the table suggests.
| Club | Place | P | Points | xPTS | Δ | xG/match | xGA/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baltika Kaliningrad | 9 | 12 | 14 | 19.2 | −5.2 | 1.28 | 0.87 |
| Dynamo Makhachkala | 10 | 12 | 13 | 16.3 | −3.3 | 1.34 | 1.48 |
Chances come from both teams' strength by xG with a home advantage; line-ups and injuries are not part of the calculation.
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