The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
A slight edge to Krylia Sovetov: 46% against 27%. Attack against defence: level, 1.27 and 1.22 expected goals a match. Krylia Sovetov are 4.7 points short of what their play deserved — more dangerous than the table suggests.
| Club | Place | P | Points | xPTS | Δ | xG/match | xGA/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Krylia Sovetov | 8 | 12 | 15 | 19.7 | −4.7 | 1.41 | 1.05 |
| Orenburg | 6 | 12 | 16 | 17.9 | −1.9 | 1.39 | 1.13 |
Chances come from both teams' strength by xG with a home advantage; line-ups and injuries are not part of the calculation.
All RPL matches with xG → · Full RPL xPTS table → · RPL: next round predictions