The score and the xG side by side. Where they disagree, someone rode their luck or wasted chances — and that is exactly how the season-long gap builds up.
| Match | Score | xG | Who deserved it |
|---|---|---|---|
| Akron Tolyatti — CSKA Moscow | 2:2 | 0.86 : 1.29 | even by chances |
| Fakel Voronezh — Zenit | 0:1 | 0.31 : 1.82 | deserved |
| Krasnodar — Rostov | 1:0 | 0.71 : 0.61 | even by chances |
| Lokomotiv Moscow — Dynamo Moscow | 0:1 | 0.58 : 1.95 | deserved |
| Akhmat Grozny — Krylia Sovetov | 3:3 | 1.17 : 1.09 | even by chances |
| Rodina Moscow — Baltika Kaliningrad | 0:3 | 0.21 : 3.11 | deserved |
| Spartak Moscow — Orenburg | 1:1 | 1.81 : 0.40 | dropped points |
| Rubin Kazan — Dynamo Makhachkala | 3:1 | 0.76 : 1.30 | got lucky |
Baltika Kaliningrad — 3.11 xG. Opponent: Rodina Moscow. Result: a win.
Spartak Moscow: 1.81 xG against the opponent's 0.40. Result: a draw.