The table shows the result, xPTS shows the quality of play. Below both clubs sit side by side on every metric: where the gap is real and where luck made it.
| Augsburg | Mainz 05 | |
|---|---|---|
| Place | 4 | 6 |
| Points | 7 | 7 |
| xPTS | 4.7 | 8 |
| Δ points − xPTS | +2.4 | −1.0 |
| xG per match | 2.14 | 2.63 |
| xGA per match | 2.13 | 1.55 |
| Scored | 11 | 10 |
| Conceded | 6 | 6 |
By quality of play Mainz 05 is ahead: 8.0 xPTS against 4.7. In the table they are level. The gap between points and play — Augsburg: +2.4, Mainz 05: −1.0.
Expected points over the coming rounds: Augsburg — 6.1, Mainz 05 — 8.5.