The table shows the result, xPTS shows the quality of play. Below both clubs sit side by side on every metric: where the gap is real and where luck made it.
| Freiburg | Mainz 05 | |
|---|---|---|
| Place | 3 | 6 |
| Points | 10 | 7 |
| xPTS | 8.8 | 8 |
| Δ points − xPTS | +1.2 | −1.0 |
| xG per match | 2.16 | 2.63 |
| xGA per match | 1.01 | 1.55 |
| Scored | 12 | 10 |
| Conceded | 3 | 6 |
By quality of play they are level: 8.8 xPTS against 8.0. The gap between points and play — Freiburg: +1.2, Mainz 05: −1.0.
Expected points over the coming rounds: Freiburg — 9.2, Mainz 05 — 8.5.