The table shows the result, xPTS shows the quality of play. Below both clubs sit side by side on every metric: where the gap is real and where luck made it.
| Hamburger SV | Union Berlin | |
|---|---|---|
| Place | 16 | 17 |
| Points | 3 | 1 |
| xPTS | 2.8 | 2.2 |
| Δ points − xPTS | +0.2 | −1.2 |
| xG per match | 0.99 | 1.23 |
| xGA per match | 2.31 | 3.21 |
| Scored | 2 | 4 |
| Conceded | 13 | 17 |
By quality of play they are level: 2.8 xPTS against 2.2. The gap between points and play — Hamburger SV: +0.2, Union Berlin: −1.2.
Expected points over the coming rounds: Hamburger SV — 4.5, Union Berlin — 2.3.