The table shows the result, xPTS shows the quality of play. Below both clubs sit side by side on every metric: where the gap is real and where luck made it.
| Paderborn | 1. FC Köln | |
|---|---|---|
| Place | 12 | 13 |
| Points | 4 | 4 |
| xPTS | 2.9 | 5.8 |
| Δ points − xPTS | +1.1 | −1.8 |
| xG per match | 0.77 | 2.24 |
| xGA per match | 1.89 | 2.17 |
| Scored | 3 | 6 |
| Conceded | 5 | 9 |
By quality of play 1. FC Köln is ahead: 5.8 xPTS against 2.9. In the table they are level. The gap between points and play — Paderborn: +1.1, 1. FC Köln: −1.8.
Expected points over the coming rounds: Paderborn — 4.9, 1. FC Köln — 8.6.