The table shows the result, xPTS shows the quality of play. Below both clubs sit side by side on every metric: where the gap is real and where luck made it.
| VfB Stuttgart | Hamburger SV | |
|---|---|---|
| Place | 15 | 16 |
| Points | 3 | 3 |
| xPTS | 3.6 | 2.8 |
| Δ points − xPTS | −0.6 | +0.2 |
| xG per match | 2.03 | 0.99 |
| xGA per match | 3 | 2.31 |
| Scored | 6 | 2 |
| Conceded | 9 | 13 |
By quality of play they are level: 3.6 xPTS against 2.8. The gap between points and play — VfB Stuttgart: −0.6, Hamburger SV: +0.2.
Expected points over the coming rounds: VfB Stuttgart — 6.7, Hamburger SV — 4.5.