The table shows the result, xPTS shows the quality of play. Below both clubs sit side by side on every metric: where the gap is real and where luck made it.
| Celta Vigo | Villarreal | |
|---|---|---|
| Place | 9 | 10 |
| Points | 12 | 12 |
| xPTS | 11.8 | 18.3 |
| Δ points − xPTS | +0.2 | −6.3 |
| xG per match | 0.96 | 2.39 |
| xGA per match | 1.22 | 1.43 |
| Scored | 10 | 15 |
| Conceded | 7 | 14 |
By quality of play Villarreal is ahead: 18.3 xPTS against 11.8. In the table they are level. The gap between points and play — Celta Vigo: +0.2, Villarreal: −6.3.
Expected points over the coming rounds: Celta Vigo — 4.5, Villarreal — 9.5.