The table shows the result, xPTS shows the quality of play. Below both clubs sit side by side on every metric: where the gap is real and where luck made it.
| Villarreal | Rayo Vallecano | |
|---|---|---|
| Place | 12 | 13 |
| Points | 9 | 9 |
| xPTS | 16.7 | 10.1 |
| Δ points − xPTS | −7.7 | −1.1 |
| xG per match | 2.49 | 1.43 |
| xGA per match | 1.45 | 1.74 |
| Scored | 13 | 12 |
| Conceded | 13 | 17 |
By quality of play Villarreal is ahead: 16.7 xPTS against 10.1. In the table they are level. The gap between points and play — Villarreal: −7.7, Rayo Vallecano: −1.1.
Expected points over the coming rounds: Villarreal — 9.2, Rayo Vallecano — 7.7.