The table shows the result, xPTS shows the quality of play. Below both clubs sit side by side on every metric: where the gap is real and where luck made it.
| Lorient | Toulouse | |
|---|---|---|
| Place | 12 | 13 |
| Points | 5 | 5 |
| xPTS | 6.4 | 8.9 |
| Δ points − xPTS | −1.4 | −4.0 |
| xG per match | 1.16 | 2.12 |
| xGA per match | 1.23 | 1.66 |
| Scored | 5 | 7 |
| Conceded | 6 | 9 |
By quality of play Toulouse is ahead: 8.9 xPTS against 6.4. In the table they are level. The gap between points and play — Lorient: −1.4, Toulouse: −4.0.
Expected points over the coming rounds: Lorient — 5.8, Toulouse — 9.8.