The table shows the result, xPTS shows the quality of play. Below both clubs sit side by side on every metric: where the gap is real and where luck made it.
| Baltika Kaliningrad | Rostov | |
|---|---|---|
| Place | 8 | 9 |
| Points | 11 | 11 |
| xPTS | 16.2 | 10.6 |
| Δ points − xPTS | −5.2 | +0.4 |
| xG per match | 1.49 | 0.82 |
| xGA per match | 0.85 | 1.22 |
| Scored | 14 | 11 |
| Conceded | 12 | 17 |
By quality of play Baltika Kaliningrad is ahead: 16.2 xPTS against 10.6. In the table they are level. The gap between points and play — Baltika Kaliningrad: −5.2, Rostov: +0.4.
Expected points over the coming rounds: Baltika Kaliningrad — 9.4, Rostov — 4.7.