The table shows the result, xPTS shows the quality of play. Below both clubs sit side by side on every metric: where the gap is real and where luck made it.
| Dynamo Moscow | Zenit | |
|---|---|---|
| Place | 3 | 5 |
| Points | 19 | 18 |
| xPTS | 15.5 | 15.1 |
| Δ points − xPTS | +3.5 | +2.9 |
| xG per match | 1.43 | 1.44 |
| xGA per match | 0.94 | 1 |
| Scored | 14 | 19 |
| Conceded | 8 | 9 |
By quality of play they are level: 15.5 xPTS against 15.1. The gap between points and play — Dynamo Moscow: +3.5, Zenit: +2.9.
Expected points over the coming rounds: Dynamo Moscow — 9.1, Zenit — 8.5.