The table shows the result, xPTS shows the quality of play. Below both clubs sit side by side on every metric: where the gap is real and where luck made it.
| Orenburg | Rostov | |
|---|---|---|
| Place | 11 | 12 |
| Points | 9 | 8 |
| xPTS | 13.3 | 9.6 |
| Δ points − xPTS | −4.3 | −1.6 |
| xG per match | 1.08 | 0.87 |
| xGA per match | 0.89 | 1.29 |
| Scored | 7 | 10 |
| Conceded | 10 | 17 |
By quality of play Orenburg is ahead: 13.3 xPTS against 9.6. In the table the gap is 1 points. The gap between points and play — Orenburg: −4.3, Rostov: −1.6.
Expected points over the coming rounds: Orenburg — 7.7, Rostov — 5.0.