The table shows the result, xPTS shows the quality of play. Below both clubs sit side by side on every metric: where the gap is real and where luck made it.
| Rodina Moscow | Fakel Voronezh | |
|---|---|---|
| Place | 15 | 16 |
| Points | 5 | 3 |
| xPTS | 5.2 | 8.6 |
| Δ points − xPTS | −0.1 | −5.6 |
| xG per match | 0.77 | 0.82 |
| xGA per match | 2.2 | 1.37 |
| Scored | 10 | 6 |
| Conceded | 22 | 13 |
By quality of play Fakel Voronezh is ahead: 8.6 xPTS against 5.2. In the table the gap is 2 points. The gap between points and play — Rodina Moscow: −0.1, Fakel Voronezh: −5.6.
Expected points over the coming rounds: Rodina Moscow — 2.6, Fakel Voronezh — 6.1.