The table shows the result, xPTS shows the quality of play. Below both clubs sit side by side on every metric: where the gap is real and where luck made it.
| Atalanta | Lecce | |
|---|---|---|
| Place | 11 | 12 |
| Points | 6 | 6 |
| xPTS | 2.7 | 2.2 |
| Δ points − xPTS | +3.3 | +3.8 |
| xG per match | 0.77 | 1.25 |
| xGA per match | 2.14 | 2.96 |
| Scored | 5 | 5 |
| Conceded | 7 | 10 |
By quality of play they are level: 2.7 xPTS against 2.2. The gap between points and play — Atalanta: +3.3, Lecce: +3.8.
Expected points over the coming rounds: Atalanta — 4.0, Lecce — 3.3.