The table shows the result, xPTS shows the quality of play. Below both clubs sit side by side on every metric: where the gap is real and where luck made it.
| Cagliari | Bologna | |
|---|---|---|
| Place | 10 | 11 |
| Points | 13 | 11 |
| xPTS | 8.8 | 14.5 |
| Δ points − xPTS | +4.2 | −3.5 |
| xG per match | 1.3 | 1.63 |
| xGA per match | 2.07 | 1.45 |
| Scored | 8 | 12 |
| Conceded | 13 | 12 |
By quality of play Bologna is ahead: 14.5 xPTS against 8.8. In the table the gap is 2 points. The gap between points and play — Cagliari: +4.2, Bologna: −3.5.
Expected points over the coming rounds: Cagliari — 3.9, Bologna — 8.8.