The table shows the result, xPTS shows the quality of play. Below both clubs sit side by side on every metric: where the gap is real and where luck made it.
| Lazio | Roma | |
|---|---|---|
| Place | 2 | 3 |
| Points | 16 | 14 |
| xPTS | 10 | 13.2 |
| Δ points − xPTS | +6.0 | +0.8 |
| xG per match | 1.88 | 2.87 |
| xGA per match | 1.49 | 1.24 |
| Scored | 11 | 14 |
| Conceded | 4 | 3 |
By quality of play Roma is ahead: 13.2 xPTS against 10.0. In the table the gap is 2 points. The gap between points and play — Lazio: +6.0, Roma: +0.8.
Expected points over the coming rounds: Lazio — 7.5, Roma — 11.7.