The table shows the result, xPTS shows the quality of play. Below both clubs sit side by side on every metric: where the gap is real and where luck made it.
| Lazio | AC Milan | |
|---|---|---|
| Place | 3 | 5 |
| Points | 13 | 11 |
| xPTS | 8 | 8.9 |
| Δ points − xPTS | +5.0 | +2.1 |
| xG per match | 1.81 | 1.94 |
| xGA per match | 1.52 | 1.18 |
| Scored | 8 | 10 |
| Conceded | 3 | 4 |
By quality of play they are level: 8.0 xPTS against 8.9. The gap between points and play — Lazio: +5.0, AC Milan: +2.1.
Expected points over the coming rounds: Lazio — 7.7, AC Milan — 9.4.