The table shows the result, xPTS shows the quality of play. Below both clubs sit side by side on every metric: where the gap is real and where luck made it.
| Lecce | Udinese | |
|---|---|---|
| Place | 12 | 13 |
| Points | 6 | 4 |
| xPTS | 2.2 | 5 |
| Δ points − xPTS | +3.8 | −1.0 |
| xG per match | 1.25 | 1.42 |
| xGA per match | 2.96 | 2.12 |
| Scored | 5 | 8 |
| Conceded | 10 | 11 |
By quality of play Udinese is ahead: 5.0 xPTS against 2.2. In the table the gap is 2 points. The gap between points and play — Lecce: +3.8, Udinese: −1.0.
Expected points over the coming rounds: Lecce — 3.3, Udinese — 6.0.