Udinese

Serie A · Italy · season 2026/27 · 11 matches · 1W 2D 8L

Place20 of 20

Points5

xPTS8.5

Δ points − xPTS−3.5

Scored / xG12 / 13.1

Conceded / xGA25 / 26.4

Next match

Bologna

Udinese

Bologna · away, 22 Nov 2026
Win 8% · draw 12% · defeat 79%

The match in numbers →

Fixture difficulty

The next three opponents by the club's own chances. A tough run.

Bologna 8%

Fiorentina 27%

Juventus 5%

What the numbers say

Points. 5 points from 8.5 xPTS (−3.5). By quality of play (xPTS) it ranks 19th in the league, but 20th in the table. Source of the shortfall: missed chances (−1.1 goals vs xG).

Attack. 1.19 xG per match — 18th of 20 (league average 1.70): the attack creates less than most rivals. Scored 12 goals from 13.1 xG — 8% fewer than expected. A small finishing shortfall, still within the usual spread.

Defence. 2.40 xGA per match — 20th of 20 for solidity (league average 1.70): allows more in front of its own goal than anyone in the league. Conceded 25 goals from 26.4 xGA — exactly in line with the chances allowed. What they allow is what they concede.

Upside potential: HIGH. Performance is better than results by 0.32 points per match: expected pace 0.8 points per match vs the current 0.5.

Round by round

The solid line is points won, the dashed line is expected points (xPTS). The gap shows how far results run ahead of performance, or behind it.

Points 5 xPTS 8.5 performance is 3.5 ahead of points

Fixtures and forecast

Current pace is 0.45 points per match, the pace expected from the next opponents is 0.69. Over the next 5 rounds the model gives 3.5 points. Outcome chances and expected points come from the opponent's attack and defence with a home advantage adjustment: a fixture is worth 3 points for a win and 1 for a draw.

Opponent	Venue	Date	Win	Draw	Defeat	Expected points
Bologna	away	2026-11-22	8%	12%	79%	0.37
Fiorentina	home	2026-11-29	27%	21%	51%	1.03
Juventus	away	2026-12-06	5%	13%	82%	0.28
Frosinone	home	2026-12-13	26%	19%	55%	0.97
Genoa	away	2026-12-20	19%	24%	57%	0.82