The table shows the result, xPTS shows the quality of play. Below both clubs sit side by side on every metric: where the gap is real and where luck made it.
| Monza | Fiorentina | |
|---|---|---|
| Place | 16 | 17 |
| Points | 4 | 4 |
| xPTS | 8.7 | 6.3 |
| Δ points − xPTS | −4.7 | −2.3 |
| xG per match | 1.98 | 1.53 |
| xGA per match | 1.48 | 1.93 |
| Scored | 8 | 6 |
| Conceded | 12 | 12 |
By quality of play Monza is ahead: 8.7 xPTS against 6.3. In the table they are level. The gap between points and play — Monza: −4.7, Fiorentina: −2.3.
Expected points over the coming rounds: Monza — 8.2, Fiorentina — 5.7.