Monza

Serie A · Italy · season 2026/27 · 11 matches · 2W 1D 8L

Place18 of 20

Points7

xPTS13.2

Δ points − xPTS−6.2

Scored / xG17 / 17.5

Conceded / xGA25 / 20.3

Next match

Monza

Fiorentina

Fiorentina · at home, 23 Nov 2026
Win 47% · draw 22% · defeat 32%

The match in numbers →

Fixture difficulty

The next three opponents by the club's own chances. A tough run.

Fiorentina 47%

Roma 9%

Como 29%

What the numbers say

Points. 7 points from 13.2 xPTS (−6.2). By quality of play (xPTS) it ranks 12th in the league, but 18th in the table. Source of the shortfall: extra goals conceded (+4.7 vs xGA).

Attack. 1.59 xG per match — 11th of 20 (league average 1.70): an average attack for this league. Scored 17 goals from 17.5 xG — finishing is on par. What they create is what they score.

Defence. 1.85 xGA per match — 11th of 20 for solidity (league average 1.70): mid-table for chances allowed. Conceded 25 goals from 20.3 xGA — 23% more than expected — the biggest overshoot of conceded goals in the league. Opponents are finishing better than the quality of their chances allows.

Upside potential: HIGH. Performance is better than results by 0.57 points per match: expected pace 1.2 points per match vs the current 0.6.

Round by round

The solid line is points won, the dashed line is expected points (xPTS). The gap shows how far results run ahead of performance, or behind it.

Points 7 xPTS 13.2 performance is 6.2 ahead of points

Fixtures and forecast

Current pace is 0.64 points per match, the pace expected from the next opponents is 0.98. Over the next 5 rounds the model gives 4.9 points. Outcome chances and expected points come from the opponent's attack and defence with a home advantage adjustment: a fixture is worth 3 points for a win and 1 for a draw.

Opponent	Venue	Date	Win	Draw	Defeat	Expected points
Fiorentina	home	2026-11-23	47%	22%	32%	1.62
Roma	away	2026-11-29	9%	11%	80%	0.37
Como	home	2026-12-06	29%	22%	49%	1.09
Juventus	away	2026-12-13	11%	20%	69%	0.53
Venezia	away	2026-12-20	37%	22%	42%	1.31