Points. 4 points from 8.7 xPTS (−4.7). By quality of play (xPTS) it ranks 4th in the league, but 14th in the table. Source of the shortfall: missed chances (−1.9 goals vs xG) and extra goals conceded (+4.6 vs xGA).
Attack. 1.98 xG per match — 4th of 20 (league average 1.72): one of the most dangerous attacks in the league. Only 8 goals scored from 9.9 xG (−1.9): the chances are there, the finishing is not. If the chance quality holds, the goals will come.
Defence. 1.48 xGA per match — 9th of 20 for solidity (league average 1.72). Conceded 12 goals from 7.4 xGA — 4.6 more than expected: opponents are scoring almost everything and the goalkeeper is not helping. By chances allowed the defence is league-average — some of these goals come down to bad luck and should drop.
Upside potential: HIGH. Performance is better than results by 0.94 points per match: expected pace 1.7 points per match vs the current 0.8.
The solid line is points won, the dashed line is expected points (xPTS). The gap shows how far results run ahead of performance, or behind it.
Current pace is 0.80 points per match, the pace expected from the next opponents is 1.65. Over the next 5 rounds the model gives 8.2 points. Expected points come from the opponent's attack and defence with a home advantage adjustment.
| Opponent | Venue | Date | Expected points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lazio | away | 2026-10-11 | 1.21 |
| Cagliari | home | 2026-10-17 | 2.20 |
| Torino | away | 2026-10-25 | 1.92 |
| Napoli | home | 2026-10-28 | 1.70 |
| Bologna | away | 2026-11-01 | 1.20 |