The table shows the result, xPTS shows the quality of play. Below both clubs sit side by side on every metric: where the gap is real and where luck made it.
| Parma | Monza | |
|---|---|---|
| Place | 15 | 16 |
| Points | 4 | 4 |
| xPTS | 3.4 | 8.7 |
| Δ points − xPTS | +0.6 | −4.7 |
| xG per match | 0.85 | 1.98 |
| xGA per match | 1.96 | 1.48 |
| Scored | 4 | 8 |
| Conceded | 7 | 12 |
By quality of play Monza is ahead: 8.7 xPTS against 3.4. In the table they are level. The gap between points and play — Parma: +0.6, Monza: −4.7.
Expected points over the coming rounds: Parma — 4.2, Monza — 8.2.