Points. 1 point from 2.1 xPTS (−1.1). By quality of play (xPTS) it ranks 19th in the league, but 18th in the table. A small shortfall, still within the margin of error. Source: missed chances (−1.4 goals vs xG).
Attack. 0.85 xG per match — 19th of 20 (league average 1.72): the attack creates less than most rivals. Only 2 goals scored from 3.4 xG (−1.4): the chances are there, the finishing is not. If the chance quality holds, the goals will come.
Defence. 2.24 xGA per match — 17th of 20 for solidity (league average 1.72). Conceded 6 goals from 9.0 xGA — 3.0 fewer than expected: the goalkeeper is bailing them out or opponents are missing. And plenty of chances are allowed near their own goal — without this luck they would concede far more.
Playing to its level. Points (1) are close to the quality of play (2.1 xPTS).
The solid line is points won, the dashed line is expected points (xPTS). The gap shows how far results run ahead of performance, or behind it.
Current pace is 0.25 points per match, the pace expected from the next opponents is 0.81. Over the next 5 rounds the model gives 4.1 points. Expected points come from the opponent's attack and defence with a home advantage adjustment.
| Opponent | Venue | Date | Expected points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Genoa | home | 2026-09-20 | 1.21 |
| Inter | away | 2026-10-11 | 0.07 |
| Torino | home | 2026-10-17 | 1.18 |
| Lazio | away | 2026-10-25 | 0.33 |
| Udinese | home | 2026-10-28 | 1.28 |