The table shows the result, xPTS shows the quality of play. Below both clubs sit side by side on every metric: where the gap is real and where luck made it.
| Roma | AC Milan | |
|---|---|---|
| Place | 1 | 5 |
| Points | 13 | 11 |
| xPTS | 12.4 | 8.9 |
| Δ points − xPTS | +0.6 | +2.1 |
| xG per match | 3.22 | 1.94 |
| xGA per match | 1.11 | 1.18 |
| Scored | 14 | 10 |
| Conceded | 3 | 4 |
By quality of play Roma is ahead: 12.4 xPTS against 8.9. In the table the gap is 2 points. The gap between points and play — Roma: +0.6, AC Milan: +2.1.
Expected points over the coming rounds: Roma — 12.0, AC Milan — 9.4.