The table shows the result, xPTS shows the quality of play. Below both clubs sit side by side on every metric: where the gap is real and where luck made it.
| Roma | Lazio | |
|---|---|---|
| Place | 1 | 3 |
| Points | 13 | 13 |
| xPTS | 12.4 | 8 |
| Δ points − xPTS | +0.6 | +5.0 |
| xG per match | 3.22 | 1.81 |
| xGA per match | 1.11 | 1.52 |
| Scored | 14 | 8 |
| Conceded | 3 | 3 |
By quality of play Roma is ahead: 12.4 xPTS against 8.0. In the table they are level. The gap between points and play — Roma: +0.6, Lazio: +5.0.
Expected points over the coming rounds: Roma — 12.0, Lazio — 7.7.