Bayern Munich — Borussia Dortmund 2:2

Bayern Munich

2:2

Borussia Dortmund

Bundesliga · 31 Oct 2026 · season 2026/27

The score says how it ended. xG says how it should have ended: it is the sum of the chances each shot was worth, not an opinion about the game.

Score2:2

Home xG3.77Bayern Munich

Away xG0.62Borussia Dortmund

Expected points2.79 : 0.15

Who deserved it

A draw, but Bayern Munich created more (3.77 xG against 0.62) — points dropped.

The numbers

Team	Goals	xG	Goals − xG	Expected points
Bayern Munich	2	3.77	−1.8	2.79
Borussia Dortmund	2	0.62	+1.4	0.15

Goals

Minute	Goal	Team	Shot xG	Assist
37'	Konrad Laimer	Bayern Munich	0.56
59'	Serhou Guirassy	Borussia Dortmund	0.10	Carney Chukwuemeka
65'	Dayotchanculle Upamecano	Bayern Munich	0.57	Harry Kane
88'	Fabio Silva	Borussia Dortmund	0.03	Konstantinos Karetsas

Key chances

Minute	Player	Team	xG	Outcome
65'	Dayotchanculle Upamecano	Bayern Munich	0.57	goal, from a corner
37'	Konrad Laimer	Bayern Munich	0.56	goal
9'	Ismael Saibari	Bayern Munich	0.42	off target

Shots: Bayern Munich 23, Borussia Dortmund 12; big chances (xG 0.3 and above): 6 and 0.

How the game went

In the first half xG was Bayern Munich 1.84, Borussia Dortmund 0.31: a big edge for Bayern Munich. In the second half xG was Bayern Munich 2.12, Borussia Dortmund 0.31: a big edge for Bayern Munich. The edge in chances lasted the whole match. Bayern Munich scored 2 from 3.77 xG: fewer than they created. Borussia Dortmund scored 2 from 0.62 xG: more than they created. As a rule, finishing like this evens out over time.

Shot data: Understat. xG rates the quality of a chance; it is not a forecast of the result.

How it fits the season

Bayern Munich: −3.8 for the season (1 in the table). Borussia Dortmund: +5.3 (2). The gap between points and xPTS is built from matches like this one.