Pitch Radar

Augsburg vs Freiburg: what the numbers say

Bundesliga · Round 8 · 31 Oct 2026 · season 2026/27

The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.

Home win22%Augsburg
Draw21%
Away win57%Freiburg
Expected points, home0.87

What to expect

Freiburg are favourites: 57% to win against 22%. Attack against defence: Freiburg should create more, 2.15 expected goals a match against 1.58. Read the table with care: Augsburg have taken 2.4 points more than their play deserved, so their position flatters them.

How they arrive

ClubPlacePPointsxPTSΔxG/matchxGA/match
Augsburg4474.7+2.42.142.13
Freiburg34108.8+1.22.161.01

Recent matches

Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.

All Bundesliga matches with xG → · Full Bundesliga xPTS table →