Pitch Radar

Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Paderborn: what the numbers say

Bundesliga · Round 8 · 31 Oct 2026 · season 2026/27

The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.

Home win59%Borussia Mönchengladbach
Draw21%
Away win20%Paderborn
Expected points, home1.98

What to expect

Borussia Mönchengladbach are favourites: 59% to win against 20%. Attack against defence: level, 1.88 and 1.94 expected goals a match. Borussia Mönchengladbach are 2.8 points short of what their play deserved — more dangerous than the table suggests.

How they arrive

ClubPlacePPointsxPTSΔxG/matchxGA/match
Borussia Mönchengladbach18402.8−2.81.873.10
Paderborn12442.9+1.10.771.89

Recent matches

Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.

All Bundesliga matches with xG → · Full Bundesliga xPTS table →