Bayer Leverkusen — VfB Stuttgart 2:4
Bayer Leverkusen2:4
VfB StuttgartThe score says how it ended. xG says how it should have ended: it is the sum of the chances each shot was worth, not an opinion about the game.
Score2:4
Home xG2.15Bayer Leverkusen
Away xG3.07VfB Stuttgart
Expected points0.96 : 1.87
Who deserved it
The score matched the game: VfB Stuttgart was the better side by chances too.
The numbers
| Team | Goals | xG | Goals − xG | Expected points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayer Leverkusen | 2 | 2.15 | −0.1 | 0.96 |
| VfB Stuttgart | 4 | 3.07 | +0.9 | 1.87 |
Goals
| Minute | Goal | Team | Shot xG | Assist |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13' | Ermedin Demirovic | VfB Stuttgart | 0.36 | |
| 21' | Jamie Leweling | VfB Stuttgart | 0.86 | |
| 27' | Patrik Schick | Bayer Leverkusen | 0.13 | Aleix García |
| 50' | Bilal El Khannouss | VfB Stuttgart | 0.05 | Chris Führich |
| 64' | Ermedin Demirovic | VfB Stuttgart | 0.76 | Deniz Undav |
| 78' | Ibrahim Maza | Bayer Leverkusen | 0.54 | Miguel Gutiérrez |
Key chances
| Minute | Player | Team | xG | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21' | Jamie Leweling | VfB Stuttgart | 0.86 | goal, from a corner |
| 64' | Ermedin Demirovic | VfB Stuttgart | 0.76 | goal |
| 78' | Ibrahim Maza | Bayer Leverkusen | 0.54 | goal, header |
Shots: Bayer Leverkusen 24, VfB Stuttgart 15; big chances (xG 0.3 and above): 2 and 5.
How the game went
In the first half xG was Bayer Leverkusen 0.69, VfB Stuttgart 2.79: a big edge for VfB Stuttgart. In the second half xG was Bayer Leverkusen 1.48, VfB Stuttgart 1.05: a small edge for Bayer Leverkusen. The edge in chances passed from VfB Stuttgart to Bayer Leverkusen.
How it fits the season
Bayer Leverkusen: +0.7 for the season (5 in the table). VfB Stuttgart: +0.9 (8). The gap between points and xPTS is built from matches like this one.
Augsburg — 
Freiburg 1:2
Schalke 04 — 
RB Leipzig 0:2
Werder Bremen — 
Hoffenheim 2:0
Borussia Mönchengladbach — 
Paderborn 0:0
Bayern Munich — 
Borussia Dortmund 2:2