The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
RB Leipzig are favourites: 66% to win against 16%. Attack against defence: RB Leipzig should create more, 2.38 expected goals a match against 1.46. RB Leipzig are 1.8 points short of what their play deserved — more dangerous than the table suggests.
| Club | Place | P | Points | xPTS | Δ | xG/match | xGA/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Schalke 04 | 11 | 4 | 5 | 4.3 | +0.7 | 1.65 | 2.58 |
| RB Leipzig | 9 | 4 | 6 | 7.8 | −1.8 | 2.19 | 1.28 |
Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.
All Bundesliga matches with xG → · Full Bundesliga xPTS table →