The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
Borussia Dortmund are favourites: 76% to win against 10%. Attack against defence: Borussia Dortmund should create more, 2.52 expected goals a match against 1.36. Borussia Mönchengladbach are 3.8 points short of what their play deserved — more dangerous than the table suggests.
| Club | Place | P | Points | xPTS | Δ | xG/match | xGA/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | 18 | 5 | 0 | 3.8 | −3.8 | 1.70 | 2.79 |
| Borussia Dortmund | 2 | 5 | 13 | 10.7 | +2.4 | 2.24 | 1.02 |
Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.
All Bundesliga matches with xG → · Full Bundesliga xPTS table →