Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig: what the numbers say

Bundesliga · Round 10 · 21 Nov 2026 · season 2026/27

The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.

Home win8%Union Berlin

Draw12%

Away win80%RB Leipzig

Expected points, home0.37

What to expect

RB Leipzig are favourites: 80% to win against 8%. Attack against defence: RB Leipzig should create more, 2.67 expected goals a match against 1.32.

How they arrive

Club	Place	P	Points	xPTS	Δ	xG/match	xGA/match
Union Berlin	16	5	4	4.4	−0.4	1.23	2.63
RB Leipzig	5	5	9	10.5	−1.5	2.70	1.42

Recent matches

Union Berlin — Elversberg 1:0 Bayern Munich — Union Berlin 7:0 Union Berlin — Schalke 04 1:3 Bayer Leverkusen — Union Berlin 4:0 Union Berlin — Eintracht Frankfurt 3:3

RB Leipzig — Eintracht Frankfurt 6:0 Bayer Leverkusen — RB Leipzig 2:0 RB Leipzig — Hamburger SV 5:0 Werder Bremen — RB Leipzig 3:1 RB Leipzig — Borussia Mönchengladbach 3:0

Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.

All Bundesliga matches with xG → · Full Bundesliga xPTS table →