The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
Freiburg are favourites: 70% to win against 12%. Attack against defence: Freiburg should create more, 2.19 expected goals a match against 1.16. Read the table with care: Elversberg have taken 3.1 points more than their play deserved, so their position flatters them.
| Club | Place | P | Points | xPTS | Δ | xG/match | xGA/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elversberg | 9 | 5 | 7 | 3.9 | +3.1 | 1.31 | 2.21 |
| Freiburg | 3 | 4 | 10 | 8.8 | +1.2 | 2.16 | 1.01 |
Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.
All Bundesliga matches with xG → · Full Bundesliga xPTS table →