Elversberg — Bayer Leverkusen 3:2

Elversberg

3:2

Bayer Leverkusen

The score says how it ended. xG says how it should have ended: it is the sum of the chances each shot was worth, not an opinion about the game.

Who deserved it

Elversberg won against the run of chances: Bayer Leverkusen created more (2.62 xG against 1.40).

The numbers

Team	Goals	xG	Goals − xG	Expected points
Elversberg	3	1.40	+1.6	0.74
Bayer Leverkusen	2	2.62	−0.6	2.08

Goals

Minute	Goal	Team	Shot xG	Assist
7'	Lukas Petkov	Elversberg	0.05	Francis-Ikechukwu Onyeka
8'	Cole Campbell	Elversberg	0.08
45'	David Mokwa	Elversberg	0.61	Lukas Petkov
76'	Patrik Schick	Bayer Leverkusen	0.50	Ibrahim Maza
90'	Christian Kofane	Bayer Leverkusen	0.45

Key chances

Minute	Player	Team	xG	Outcome
45'	David Mokwa	Elversberg	0.61	goal
76'	Patrik Schick	Bayer Leverkusen	0.50	goal, from a corner
90'	Christian Kofane	Bayer Leverkusen	0.45	goal

Shots: Elversberg 11, Bayer Leverkusen 21; big chances (xG 0.3 and above): 1 and 4.

How the game went

In the first half xG was Elversberg 1.37, Bayer Leverkusen 0.67: a small edge for Elversberg. In the second half xG was Elversberg 0.03, Bayer Leverkusen 2.03: a big edge for Bayer Leverkusen. The edge in chances passed from Elversberg to Bayer Leverkusen. Elversberg scored 3 from 1.40 xG: well above what they created. As a rule, finishing like this evens out over time.

How it fits the season

Elversberg: +5.7 for the season (7 in the table). Bayer Leverkusen: +0.7 (5). The gap between points and xPTS is built from matches like this one.

Other matches of the round

Union Berlin — Eintracht Frankfurt 3:31. FC Köln — Hoffenheim 3:2RB Leipzig — Borussia Mönchengladbach 3:0Mainz 05 — Paderborn 0:0Borussia Dortmund — Hamburger SV 2:0

All Bundesliga matches with xG →