The score says how it ended. xG says how it should have ended: it is the sum of the chances each shot was worth, not an opinion about the game.
A fair draw: the xG gap is only 0.16.
| Team | Goals | xG | Goals − xG | Expected points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Union Berlin | 3 | 2.28 | +0.7 | 1.49 |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | 3 | 2.12 | +0.9 | 1.31 |
Union Berlin: −1.2 for the season (17 in the table). Eintracht Frankfurt: −0.5 (10). The gap between points and xPTS is built from matches like this one.