Hoffenheim — Hamburger SV 2:3

Hoffenheim

2:3

Hamburger SV

The score says how it ended. xG says how it should have ended: it is the sum of the chances each shot was worth, not an opinion about the game.

Who deserved it

The score matched the game: Hamburger SV was the better side by chances too.

The numbers

Team	Goals	xG	Goals − xG	Expected points
Hoffenheim	2	0.93	+1.1	0.96
Hamburger SV	3	1.51	+1.5	1.78

Goals

Minute	Goal	Team	Shot xG	Assist
11'	Yussuf Poulsen	Hamburger SV	0.63
50'	Sebastiaan Bornauw (own goal)	Hoffenheim	—
52'	Bambasé Conté	Hoffenheim	0.08	Fisnik Asllani
82'	Terem Igobor Moffi	Hamburger SV	0.29	Miro Muheim
93'	Miro Muheim	Hamburger SV	0.03

Key chances

Minute	Player	Team	xG	Outcome
11'	Yussuf Poulsen	Hamburger SV	0.63	goal, from a set piece
82'	Terem Igobor Moffi	Hamburger SV	0.29	goal, header
87'	Fábio Vieira	Hamburger SV	0.18	saved

Shots: Hoffenheim 17, Hamburger SV 15; big chances (xG 0.3 and above): 0 and 1.

How the game went

In the first half xG was Hoffenheim 0.53, Hamburger SV 0.86: a small edge for Hamburger SV. In the second half xG was Hoffenheim 0.41, Hamburger SV 0.70: about even. Hoffenheim scored 2 from 0.93 xG: more than they created. Hamburger SV scored 3 from 1.51 xG: more than they created. As a rule, finishing like this evens out over time.

How it fits the season

Hoffenheim: −2.3 for the season (9 in the table). Hamburger SV: +3.9 (11). The gap between points and xPTS is built from matches like this one.

Other matches of the round

Mainz 05 — Bayer Leverkusen 3:4Paderborn — VfB Stuttgart 0:2Augsburg — Bayern Munich 2:2Union Berlin — Elversberg 1:0RB Leipzig — Eintracht Frankfurt 6:0

All Bundesliga matches with xG →