Mainz 05 — Bayer Leverkusen 3:4
Mainz 05
Bayer LeverkusenThe score says how it ended. xG says how it should have ended: it is the sum of the chances each shot was worth, not an opinion about the game.
Who deserved it
The score matched the game: Bayer Leverkusen was the better side by chances too.
The numbers
| Team | Goals | xG | Goals − xG | Expected points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mainz 05 | 3 | 2.17 | +0.8 | 1.34 |
| Bayer Leverkusen | 4 | 2.29 | +1.7 | 1.47 |
Goals
| Minute | Goal | Team | Shot xG | Assist |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4' | Robert Andrich | Bayer Leverkusen | 0.05 | |
| 8' | Patrik Schick | Bayer Leverkusen | 0.35 | Aleix García |
| 32' | Anthony Caci | Mainz 05 | 0.26 | |
| 41' | Anthony Caci | Mainz 05 | 0.05 | Nadiem Amiri |
| 54' | Jarell Quansah | Bayer Leverkusen | 0.31 | |
| 64' | Moussa Diaby | Bayer Leverkusen | 0.07 | Afonso Moreira |
| 91' | Benedict Hollerbach | Mainz 05 | 0.53 |
Key chances
| Minute | Player | Team | xG | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 91' | Benedict Hollerbach | Mainz 05 | 0.53 | goal |
| 54' | Jarell Quansah | Bayer Leverkusen | 0.46 | saved |
| 10' | Ibrahim Maza | Bayer Leverkusen | 0.43 | off target |
Shots: Mainz 05 23, Bayer Leverkusen 16; big chances (xG 0.3 and above): 2 and 4.
How the game went
In the first half xG was Mainz 05 1.27, Bayer Leverkusen 0.89: a small edge for Mainz 05. In the second half xG was Mainz 05 0.99, Bayer Leverkusen 1.55: a small edge for Bayer Leverkusen. The edge in chances passed from Mainz 05 to Bayer Leverkusen. Bayer Leverkusen scored 4 from 2.29 xG: well above what they created. As a rule, finishing like this evens out over time.
How it fits the season
Mainz 05: −4.8 for the season (12 in the table). Bayer Leverkusen: +0.7 (5). The gap between points and xPTS is built from matches like this one.
Paderborn — 
VfB Stuttgart 0:2
Augsburg — 
Bayern Munich 2:2
Hoffenheim — 
Hamburger SV 2:3
Union Berlin — 
Elversberg 1:0
RB Leipzig — 
Eintracht Frankfurt 6:0