Augsburg — Bayern Munich 2:2

Augsburg

2:2

Bayern Munich

Bundesliga · 10 Oct 2026 · season 2026/27

The score says how it ended. xG says how it should have ended: it is the sum of the chances each shot was worth, not an opinion about the game.

Score2:2

Home xG1.96Augsburg

Away xG4.58Bayern Munich

Expected points0.43 : 2.47

Who deserved it

A draw, but Bayern Munich created more (4.58 xG against 1.96) — points dropped.

The numbers

Team	Goals	xG	Goals − xG	Expected points
Augsburg	2	1.96	+0.0	0.43
Bayern Munich	2	4.58	−2.6	2.47

Goals

Minute	Goal	Team	Shot xG	Assist
0'	Robin Fellhauer	Augsburg	0.40
54'	Ismael Saibari	Bayern Munich	0.46	Harry Kane
63'	Rodrigo Ribeiro	Augsburg	0.50
79'	Nathaniel Brown	Bayern Munich	0.48	Harry Kane

Key chances

Minute	Player	Team	xG	Outcome
82'	Serge Gnabry	Bayern Munich	0.66	hit the woodwork
34'	Juma Bah	Augsburg	0.59	off target, from a corner
49'	Harry Kane	Bayern Munich	0.54	hit the woodwork

Shots: Augsburg 12, Bayern Munich 30; big chances (xG 0.3 and above): 3 and 7.

How the game went

In the first half xG was Augsburg 1.25, Bayern Munich 1.00: about even. In the second half xG was Augsburg 0.80, Bayern Munich 4.01: a big edge for Bayern Munich. Bayern Munich scored 2 from 4.58 xG: fewer than they created. As a rule, finishing like this evens out over time.

Shot data: Understat. xG rates the quality of a chance; it is not a forecast of the result.