Paderborn — VfB Stuttgart 0:2

Paderborn

0:2

VfB Stuttgart

The score says how it ended. xG says how it should have ended: it is the sum of the chances each shot was worth, not an opinion about the game.

Who deserved it

The score matched the game: VfB Stuttgart was the better side by chances too.

The numbers

Team	Goals	xG	Goals − xG	Expected points
Paderborn	0	2.09	−2.1	1.14
VfB Stuttgart	2	2.59	−0.6	1.67

Goals

Minute	Goal	Team	Shot xG	Assist
24'	Julian Chabot	VfB Stuttgart	0.27	Angelo Stiller
82'	Chris Führich	VfB Stuttgart	0.11	Angelo Stiller

Key chances

Minute	Player	Team	xG	Outcome
58'	Marvin Pieringer	Paderborn	0.52	off target, header
81'	Rayan Philippe	Paderborn	0.46	blocked
11'	Ermedin Demirovic	VfB Stuttgart	0.33	saved

Shots: Paderborn 23, VfB Stuttgart 18; big chances (xG 0.3 and above): 3 and 3.

How the game went

In the first half xG was Paderborn 0.64, VfB Stuttgart 1.36: a small edge for VfB Stuttgart. In the second half xG was Paderborn 1.50, VfB Stuttgart 1.24: about even. Paderborn scored 0 from 2.09 xG: fewer than they created. As a rule, finishing like this evens out over time.

How it fits the season

Paderborn: +0.6 for the season (13 in the table). VfB Stuttgart: +0.9 (8). The gap between points and xPTS is built from matches like this one.

Other matches of the round

Mainz 05 — Bayer Leverkusen 3:4Augsburg — Bayern Munich 2:2Hoffenheim — Hamburger SV 2:3Union Berlin — Elversberg 1:0RB Leipzig — Eintracht Frankfurt 6:0

All Bundesliga matches with xG →