Pitch Radar

RB Leipzig vs Eintracht Frankfurt: what the numbers say

Bundesliga · Round 5 · 10 Oct 2026 · season 2026/27

The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.

Home win68%RB Leipzig
Draw16%
Away win15%Eintracht Frankfurt
Expected points, home2.21

What to expect

RB Leipzig are favourites: 68% to win against 15%. Attack against defence: RB Leipzig should create more, 2.21 expected goals a match against 1.75. RB Leipzig are 1.8 points short of what their play deserved — more dangerous than the table suggests.

How they arrive

ClubPlacePPointsxPTSΔxG/matchxGA/match
RB Leipzig9467.8−1.82.191.28
Eintracht Frankfurt10455.5−0.52.222.23

Recent matches

Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.

All Bundesliga matches with xG → · Full Bundesliga xPTS table →