Hoffenheim — VfB Stuttgart 2:1

Hoffenheim

2:1

VfB Stuttgart

The score says how it ended. xG says how it should have ended: it is the sum of the chances each shot was worth, not an opinion about the game.

Who deserved it

The score matched the game: Hoffenheim was the better side by chances too.

The numbers

Team	Goals	xG	Goals − xG	Expected points
Hoffenheim	2	2.96	−1.0	1.55
VfB Stuttgart	1	2.67	−1.7	1.27

Goals

Minute	Goal	Team	Shot xG	Assist
12'	Adam Hlozek	Hoffenheim	0.32	Bambasé Conté
47'	Maximilian Mittelstädt	VfB Stuttgart	0.38
66'	Adam Hlozek	Hoffenheim	0.37	Adam Daghim

Key chances

Minute	Player	Team	xG	Outcome
61'	Dzenan Pejcinovic	VfB Stuttgart	0.58	saved
7'	Ermedin Demirovic	VfB Stuttgart	0.47	saved
90'	Fisnik Asllani	Hoffenheim	0.46	saved

Shots: Hoffenheim 20, VfB Stuttgart 16; big chances (xG 0.3 and above): 5 and 5.

How the game went

In the first half xG was Hoffenheim 1.07, VfB Stuttgart 0.96: about even. In the second half xG was Hoffenheim 1.88, VfB Stuttgart 1.71: about even. VfB Stuttgart scored 1 from 2.67 xG: fewer than they created. As a rule, finishing like this evens out over time.

How it fits the season

Hoffenheim: −2.3 for the season (9 in the table). VfB Stuttgart: +0.9 (8). The gap between points and xPTS is built from matches like this one.

Other matches of the round

Freiburg — Borussia Mönchengladbach 5:0Mainz 05 — Eintracht Frankfurt 1:3Augsburg — Bayer Leverkusen 2:2Borussia Dortmund — Paderborn 3:01. FC Köln — Werder Bremen 1:1

All Bundesliga matches with xG →