The score says how it ended. xG says how it should have ended: it is the sum of the chances each shot was worth, not an opinion about the game.
The score matched the game: Hoffenheim was the better side by chances too.
| Team | Goals | xG | Goals − xG | Expected points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hoffenheim | 2 | 2.96 | −1.0 | 1.55 |
| VfB Stuttgart | 1 | 2.67 | −1.7 | 1.27 |
Hoffenheim: −2.8 for the season (14 in the table). VfB Stuttgart: −0.6 (15). The gap between points and xPTS is built from matches like this one.