Augsburg — Bayer Leverkusen 2:2

Augsburg

2:2

Bayer Leverkusen

The score says how it ended. xG says how it should have ended: it is the sum of the chances each shot was worth, not an opinion about the game.

Who deserved it

A draw, but Bayer Leverkusen created more (1.89 xG against 0.84) — points dropped.

The numbers

Team	Goals	xG	Goals − xG	Expected points
Augsburg	2	0.84	+1.2	0.70
Bayer Leverkusen	2	1.89	+0.1	2.08

Goals

Minute	Goal	Team	Shot xG	Assist
17'	Christian Kofane	Bayer Leverkusen	0.07	Edmond Tapsoba
49'	Michael Gregoritsch	Augsburg	0.45	Hennes Behrens
54'	Michael Gregoritsch	Augsburg	0.09	Fabian Rieder
88'	Patrik Schick	Bayer Leverkusen	0.13	Malik Tillman

Key chances

Minute	Player	Team	xG	Outcome
49'	Michael Gregoritsch	Augsburg	0.45	goal
88'	Patrik Schick	Bayer Leverkusen	0.13	goal
36'	Jarell Quansah	Bayer Leverkusen	0.11	off target, header, from a corner

Shots: Augsburg 8, Bayer Leverkusen 30; big chances (xG 0.3 and above): 1 and 0.

How the game went

In the first half xG was Augsburg 0.15, Bayer Leverkusen 0.90: a small edge for Bayer Leverkusen. In the second half xG was Augsburg 0.69, Bayer Leverkusen 1.01: a small edge for Bayer Leverkusen. The edge in chances lasted the whole match. Augsburg scored 2 from 0.84 xG: more than they created. As a rule, finishing like this evens out over time.

How it fits the season

Augsburg: −1.9 for the season (14 in the table). Bayer Leverkusen: +0.7 (5). The gap between points and xPTS is built from matches like this one.

Other matches of the round

Freiburg — Borussia Mönchengladbach 5:0Hoffenheim — VfB Stuttgart 2:1Mainz 05 — Eintracht Frankfurt 1:3Borussia Dortmund — Paderborn 3:01. FC Köln — Werder Bremen 1:1

All Bundesliga matches with xG →