The score says how it ended. xG says how it should have ended: it is the sum of the chances each shot was worth, not an opinion about the game.
A fair draw: the xG gap is only 0.43.
| Team | Goals | xG | Goals − xG | Expected points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. FC Köln | 1 | 1.61 | −0.6 | 1.67 |
| Werder Bremen | 1 | 1.18 | −0.2 | 1.09 |
1. FC Köln: −1.8 for the season (13 in the table). Werder Bremen: +2.4 (8). The gap between points and xPTS is built from matches like this one.