The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
Borussia Dortmund are favourites: 84% to win against 6%. Attack against defence: Borussia Dortmund should create more, 2.68 expected goals a match against 1.15. Read the table with care: Borussia Dortmund have taken 3.9 points more than their play deserved, so their position flatters them.
| Club | Place | P | Points | xPTS | Δ | xG/match | xGA/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Union Berlin | 17 | 4 | 1 | 2.2 | −1.2 | 1.23 | 3.21 |
| Borussia Dortmund | 1 | 4 | 12 | 8.1 | +3.9 | 2.15 | 1.06 |
Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.
All Bundesliga matches with xG → · Full Bundesliga xPTS table →