The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
A slight edge to VfB Stuttgart: 48% against 31%. Attack against defence: VfB Stuttgart should create more, 2.17 expected goals a match against 2.00.
| Club | Place | P | Points | xPTS | Δ | xG/match | xGA/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV | 16 | 4 | 3 | 2.8 | +0.2 | 0.99 | 2.31 |
| VfB Stuttgart | 15 | 4 | 3 | 3.6 | −0.6 | 2.03 | 3.00 |
Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.
All Bundesliga matches with xG → · Full Bundesliga xPTS table →