Hamburger SV — VfB Stuttgart 1:0

Hamburger SV

1:0

VfB Stuttgart

The score says how it ended. xG says how it should have ended: it is the sum of the chances each shot was worth, not an opinion about the game.

Who deserved it

VfB Stuttgart created more (2.64 xG against 1.67) and left with nothing.

The numbers

Team	Goals	xG	Goals − xG	Expected points
Hamburger SV	1	1.67	−0.7	0.88
VfB Stuttgart	0	2.64	−2.6	1.94

Goals

Minute	Goal	Team	Shot xG	Assist
87'	Miro Muheim	Hamburger SV	0.03	Zakaria El Ouahdi

Key chances

Minute	Player	Team	xG	Outcome
26'	Fábio Vieira	Hamburger SV	0.63	saved, from a corner
84'	Dzenan Pejcinovic	VfB Stuttgart	0.41	off target
52'	Yussuf Poulsen	Hamburger SV	0.38	hit the woodwork

Shots: Hamburger SV 14, VfB Stuttgart 24; big chances (xG 0.3 and above): 2 and 3.

How the game went

In the first half xG was Hamburger SV 0.82, VfB Stuttgart 1.34: a small edge for VfB Stuttgart. In the second half xG was Hamburger SV 0.86, VfB Stuttgart 1.28: a small edge for VfB Stuttgart. The edge in chances lasted the whole match. VfB Stuttgart scored 0 from 2.64 xG: fewer than they created. As a rule, finishing like this evens out over time.

How it fits the season

Hamburger SV: +3.9 for the season (11 in the table). VfB Stuttgart: +0.9 (8). The gap between points and xPTS is built from matches like this one.

Other matches of the round

Schalke 04 — Mainz 05 0:1Union Berlin — Borussia Dortmund 0:0Werder Bremen — Paderborn 2:2Elversberg — Augsburg 4:3Bayern Munich — RB Leipzig 6:1

All Bundesliga matches with xG →